Elections in Kenya – What now?

By: Anders Närman, Associate Professor, Department of Human and Economic Geography, Göteborg University, Sweden.

The In the elections on 27 December, 2002, an overwhelming majority of Kenyans voted for the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) and its presidential candidate Mwai Kibaki. After 24 years as President, Daniel arap Moi lost his hold on power. Entering into this new era of Kenyan history means that many new hopes are being nurtured. However, at the same time there are many questions that need to be answered concerning Kenya’s future.

The Moi legacy will be remembered as something of a dark age in Kenya for some considerable time to come. His regime followed in the footsteps of his predecessor Jomo Kenyatta, but adopted mainly the negative features. Undemocratic governance came to signify the rule of Moi, e.g. political murders, torture, detention without trials, corruption and election rigging on a massive scale. The newly opened dungeons in the basement of Nyayo House, in the middle of Nairobi, stand as witness for the methods used by the Moi Government to quell all sorts of opposition. However, this kind of rule, like Kenyatta’s, was long accepted by the international community. At least when the economy was doing reasonably well. It was during the 1980s that the country gradually fell into disrepute and the image of Moi turned increasingly into that of a dictator. A symbol of the atrocities was the brutal murder of the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Robert Ouko.

In the early 1990s strong external pressures influenced the Kenyan authorities to open up for multiparty elections. Some time earlier KANU had given itself the status as the only legal political party. Two multiparty elections were held in the 1990s (1992 and 1997), with Moi and KANU as winners. On both these occasions the incumbent President illustrated his ability as a Professor of Politics. The opposition was split and he used an intricate ethnic balance to ensure he had a majority behind him in Parliament.

Presidential elections
After two previous attempts to become President, Mwai Kibaki was finally successful the third time. This can be seen as the peak of a long political career that goes back to the early 1960s when he was first appointed as an Assistant Minister. Since then he has been Vice President, and Minister of Economics, Home Affairs and Health. Even if Kibaki is regarded as one of the most respected politicians in Kenya the economic decline and human rights abuses are related to his earlier spheres of responsibility.
When Kibaki won last year’s election he was able to acquire a considerable majority of well above 60 percent of the votes, while his major opponent Uhuru Kenyatta (son of the first President) was only able to reach some 30 percent. This can be compared to Moi who got a total of 36 percent in 1992 and 40 percent five years later.

In the 1997 elections the joint NARC leadership (including Kibaki) got a total of 58 percent of the votes. With a greater co-operation in these two previous elections it might have been possible to present Moi with a stronger challenge. In any case Kibaki has much more nation-wide support than Moi ever achieved.

The Parliament
When talking to one of the newly elected NARC MPs recently I was told that the real battle was to get the party nomination, not the actual parliamentary elections. In fact, the NARC majority in 2002 went far beyond the KANU results in the two previous elections. Out of 210 elected seats in Parliament 126 were won by NARC, against 63 for KANU. Apart from these two parties an additional 14 seats were taken by FORD People, which was led by a former Finance Minister Simeon Nyachae, and some scattered votes for a number of additional parties.

Even if many of the NARC MPs were newcomers to national politics, there are also clear exceptions to this. Changing party alliances have been part of political life in Kenya ever since the 1960s. One example of this is the NARC Minister of Works Raila Odinga, who entered Parliament in 1992 on a FORD Kenya ticket. When he was not able to secure the party chairmanship after the death of his father Oginga Odinga he took over a smaller party NDP (National Development Party). In 1997 he was elected MP for this new party, which he later merged with the ruling KANU. This move can be seen as an attempt to position himself in the battle for the presidency. When this prospect seemed to be receding he formed an opposition within KANU against Uhuru Kenyatta and finally joined NARC a couple of months before the general elections.

In addition to Raila Odinga NARC has among its MPs a number of former KANU Ministers. At the same time politicians with a more radical image are found in the NARC ranks of MPs. In the new NARC Cabinet we can also find some progressive academics like Professor Anyang Nyongo.

Selecting a Cabinet must have been a very delicate task with a whole lot of considerations to be taken into account. The selections made seem to represent numerous interests and the former party allegiances. For the first time there were three women Cabinet Ministers appointed. Over the years, KANU Governments had included only one female Cabinet Minister and two Assistant Ministers.

We can observe that it did not take long until some of the NARC MPs, originally from KANU, not selected for the Cabinet expressed their disappointment openly. On the other hand the Kenya Human Rights Commission issued a press statement raising doubts about the inclusion of former KANU members that were seen to be too close to the former regime. One issue for the future will be to see how well NARC will be able to keep the alliance together. Unfortunately, within a week NARC lost its only Cabinet Minister from the North-Eastern Province in an air crash.
Immediately after the election many questions were raised on what role KANU and Kenyatta would play as an opposition. Many voices were heard about the need to re-vitalise KANU. However, a number of leaders decided to leave the party. A confrontation between the new and the old Government soon became apparent in relation to the ownership of Kenyatta Conference Centre, which KANU saw as their property.

The ethnic dimension
As already indicated there is a clear ethnic factor to account for in any kind of election analysis in Kenya. Going back to the time of independence it was claimed that KANU mainly represented the interests of the two largest ethnic communities in the country, i.e. the Kikuyu and Luo, while the opposition KANU safe-guarded the rights of minority groups. KADU was dissolved and many of its leading politicians, including Moi, were to eventually join the governing party. However, the legacy of KADU lived on within KANU, especially after Moi’s take-over, which was expressed in a debate on federalism—majimbo. During the multiparty era in the 1990s the Kikuyu and Luo were increasingly alienated from KANU. Not a single MP from these two communities was elected as a KANU candidate. Instead Moi used his right to nominate members, so that he could get at least one Cabinet Minister from each of the two groups represented in the Cabinet.

In the presidential elections during the 1990s, the two main groups were not able to find a common candidate, so the vote was split. In 1992 the major challenge came from Matiba, Kibaki (both Kikuyu) and Odinga (Luo). Five years later Kibaki came second and Raila Odinga third. In addition the two ethnic groups that are third (Luhya) and fourth (Kamba) in size each had one candidate. Against this Moi was able to get solid support from his own group (Kalenjin), as well as most of the smaller ones at the coast and the people of the large arid and semi-arid areas in the north and partly the south (Masai).

Interestingly, Kibaki’s main opponent in the 2002 elections was a Kikuyu (Kenyatta), who was successful in his own home district (Kiambu). Strong KANU regions, such as North-Eastern and the central part of Rift Valley Provinces were the only other areas with a majority vote for Kenyatta. A conclusion which can be drawn from this is that Kibaki can be regarded as the first really national President. At the same time, to achieve this status he relies heavily on close collaboration with some key personalities from particularly the Luo, Luhya and Kamba groups. We can note that the parliamentary balance is also based on similar ethnic arithmetic. From this might follow that the new Kenyan regime is basing its power on a rather fragile foundation. Further, some of the individuals who are at present acting as guarantees for this structure are heavily implicated from previous positions within KANU.

The political agenda for Kibaki and NARC
Following upon the appointment of the NARC Cabinet, many of the newly appointed Ministers tried to introduce a number of reforms. Strong concerns were expressed about the national economy if all of them were to be achieved. So, for example, education for all was proclaimed almost directly after the new Minister of Education Saitoti (former KANU Vice President) was appointed, but even if this is a very commendable reform it is not so easy to achieve without much more thorough planning.
After years of decay the agenda for the new Government consists of numerous sectors that need urgent attention, such as:

The administrative structure. After being under an administration that has to a large extent been corrupt and incompetent, with many civil servants appointed as a result of nepotism or on ethnic grounds, it is time to renew the civil service. This process was started very soon after the new Government came into office. The fight against corruption has to be high on the agenda—from the top and down.

Socio-economic development. It is high time to get the economy on the right track again, but this has to be done so that all Kenyans are able to benefit from improved economic standards. It is essential that the new regime avoids a policy leading to a continued social exclusion for many of its citizens. Northern Kenya has to be included more directly in national development. The donor community seems to be positive to the new Government and President, but this must not lead to new forms of dependency. Within the development agenda external assistance must be balanced with civil society efforts.

Violence and human rights abuses. For too long Kenyans have been exposed to all forms of violence and human rights abuses. Criminal activities have for many been the only way to survive. Ethnic clashes, cattle rustling and disputes in the border regions have led to a large number of internally displaced persons. Many Kenyans have been the victims of state repression, which has led to the call for a truth commission. The question is how well the new Government will be able to bring the guilty to justice or how far this will turn into a new bloody witch-hunt.

Constitution. Since some time back a commission has been working on a new constitution. In order to make the new euphoria last it is important that the political rules are demarcated as soon as possible.

These are only a few of the issues for urgent attention. The first period of the new Government will set the tone for the years to come. A lot will depend on how well the new regime is able to consolidate its rule, and which faction in the leadership devises the political direction. Without careful balancing, there is a risk that we will experience new divisions and rivalries for political influence.

Postscript
A first assessment of the new Government made after 100 days by the Kenya Human Rights Commission gives notice of both successes and failures. It was observed that the Government had set a new hopeful mood for the country, which was also confirmed by an opinion poll carried out by The Nation newspaper. However, the Government has not been able to build on the popular mood to make any fundamental changes. Achievements in the fight against corruption and in the work towards a new constitution will need more time to be evaluated objectively. It would seem that an early move to increase salaries for MPs and Ministers was a tactical mistake. Many high ranking civil servants have been replaced thus far, but in this exercise, as well as in appointments to the Cabinet, there have been voices of complaint that regional, ethnic and gender imbalances are not properly addressed. There are still uncertainties surrounding two major issues, i.e. (i) the health of the President and his deputy, and (ii) how long the fragile coalition will hold, against the many strong personal ambitions that it has contained at this early stage .

Selected topical literature
Ajulu, R., ‘Kenya: One Step Forward, Three Steps Back: The Succession Dilemma’. In Review of African Political Economy, vol. 28, no. 88, 2001.

Cowen, M. and Laakso, L., Multi-party Elections in Africa. Oxford: James Currey, 2002.

Dianga, J., Kenya 1982—The Attempted Coup. The Consequence of a One Party Dictatorship. London: Pen Press Publishers, 2002.

Human Rights Watch, Kenya’s Unfinished Democracy. A Human Right Agenda for the Government. New York, 2002.

Närman, A., ‘Tribe of nation? Some lessons from the Kenyan multiparty elections’. In Dwyer, D. and Drakakis-Smith, D. Ethnicity and Development. Geographical Perspectives. Chicester: John Wiley and Sons, 1996.

Owino, J., Kenya: Into the 21st Century. Minerva Press, UK, 2002.

Rutten, M., Mazrui, A. and Grignon, F., Out for the Count. The 1997 General Elections and Prospects for Democracy in Kenya. Kampala: Fountain Publishers, 2001.

Throup, D and Hornsby, C., Multi-Party Politics in Kenya; The Kenyatta and Moi States and the Triumph of the System in the 1992 Election. Oxford: James Currey, 1998.

wa Wamwere, K., The People’s Representative and the Tyrant or Kenya: Independence Without Freedom. Nairobi: New Concept Typesetters, 1992.